Richmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

281
FXUS61 KAKQ 141047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
547 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. The low
pressure system is progged to move across the area a little quicker,
which decreases the chances of rain during the day Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures moderates today after a chilly start, as high
pressure moves offshore. Dry conditions today.

2) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday
likely bringing widespread beneficial rainfall, with totals around
0.5-1.5" across the area.

3) Above average temperatures return for the majority of next week
from upper air ridging, with limited chances of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures moderates today after a chilly start, as high
pressure moves offshore. Dry conditions today.

An upper level trough is situated just offshore with surface high
pressure remaining dominant over the area and SE US. The high will
continue to push eastward, moving offshore this afternoon. Because
of the position of the high currently and strong radiational
cooling, morning low temperatures are quite chilly in the lower 20s
across the area. As the high moves offshore, southwest flow will
usher in warmer temperatures, allowing above average highs in the
upper 50s. Dry conditions will continue with sunny skies. Min RH
values are expected to be around 25-30% inland and 30-35% along the
coast, although with light winds and recent snow melt, fire weather
concerns remain low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday
likely bringing widespread beneficial rainfall, with totals around
0.5-1.5" across the area.

An upper level trough is expected to move south of the area Sunday
into Monday. At the surface, a low pressure is expected to develop
to the west and track across the southern United States today, and
then move into our area Sunday morning. Much needed beneficial
rainfall is progged with this system Sunday morning into early
Monday morning. The recent 00z/14 models and ensembles now depict a
more progressive system, exiting the area by early Monday morning,
rather than lingering throughout the day Monday. However, there is
still some disagreement on where the low will move through, which
will impact which areas receive the highest rainfall totals. The
GEFS and Euro ensemble both show a widespread 50-70% of 1" of
rainfall across most of the area, with slightly lower chances in the
northern portions. Forecast totals are expected to be 0.5-0.75"
north of I-64 and 0.75-1.5" south of I-64. Localized totals may
be higher.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Above average temperatures return for the majority of next week
from upper air ridging, with limited chances of rain.

Behind the low pressure system Monday, upper level ridging will form
with surface high pressure to the southern offshore waters with
southwesterly low-mid level flow. This will help push warmer, above
average temperatures for the majority of next week, possibly
reaching upper 60s mid next week. There are limited chances of
rainfall next week, as the offshore high influences the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 545 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period, as high
pressure gradually shifts offshore. Clear skies are observed via
satellite imagery early this morning, along with light and
variable winds. W-SW winds will increase to 5-10 kt this
afternoon before decreasing tonight. SKC will continue until
around 00z, as high clouds begin to build in ahead of the next
system.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through tonight. Widespread rain is
likely by Sunday morning into early Monday with flight
restrictions probable.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the majority of this
  weekend, as high pressure lingers over the region today,
  before sliding offshore tonight and Sunday.

- The next system approaches the area on Sunday and could bring
  additional SCA headlines by later Sun into Monday.

- Sub-SCA winds return by Tuesday, though seas could remain
  above 5 feet until Tuesday evening.

Latest analysis shows weakening ~1024mb sfc high pressure over
the local waters, extending south across the Coastal Carolinas.
WInds were generally SSW ~5-10 kt. Waves and seas 1-2 ft, up to
3 ft south of the VA/NC border. Good boating conditions continue
through much of the weekend, as the surface high slowly slides
off into the western Atlantic over the next day or so. Winds
remain SW ~5-10 kt today and tonight, backing to the SSE
tomorrow into tomorrow night ahead of the next system. That
system will lift from the Gulf coast across the southeast CONUS
and offshore of the coastal Carolinas tomorrow through tomorrow
night, sliding just south/southeast of the local waters. Latest
model trends continue to favor a more suppressed/weaker system,
and while wind probs for sustained winds AOA 25 kt are less than
20% in the bay and again lower over the northern coastal waters,
NE winds are still expected to increase to ~15-20 kt in the
lower bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles by Monday. The
onshore flow and resultant E-SE wind wave should also serve to
build seas to 5-7 ft everywhere. Local wind probabilities on
Monday for SCA winds still favor SCA level winds, with
probabilities of winds to 18 kt+ now 50-70% over the Bay
(highest south), mainly for late tomorrow night into Monday, as
the pressure gradient quickly tightens with the surface low
crossing to our south. Probabilities of 25+ kt sustained winds
are 20-30% north of Wachapreague on the Atlantic coastal waters
side, with 40-60% probs across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters.
Finally, as the system exits Monday into Monday afternoon, a few
gusts to low-end gale force are possible over the southern
coastal waters, and have noted 34kt wind gust probs have
increased for a brief period monday into Monday afternoon,
mainly south of the VA Capes. Given that SCA level winds and
seas are still late 4th into the 5th forecast period, will hold
off on any headlines for now.

Seas remain around 2ft today and tonight to occasionally 3 ft
through the weekend. As mentioned above, seas will once again
build through the first part of next week, with building SE
swell likely to build seas aoa 5 ft Monday afternoon and
evening. Winds and seas steadily subside Mon night and Tuesday,
as high pressure builds from the SE coast across the local
waters, though seas could take well into Tuesday to fall below 5
ft. Return flow (SSW) then increases by midweek ahead of the
next system, with marginal SCA gusts possible in the bay Wed
night into Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI/MAM